Cotlook Index: 12-10-2026
91.15 (+0.50)
ICE cotton futures extend gains amid crop concerns
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026, (Source: www.fibre2fashion.com)
Insights: ICE cotton futures rose for a second session on US crop-damage concerns and stronger crude oil, with December 2026 at 80.60 cents per pound.Gains were capped by USDA forecasts raising 2026-27 US production by 2 per cent to 13.44 million bales and ending stocks by 6 per cent to 3.8 million bales.A stronger dollar, subdued volume and delayed crop progress data kept traders cautious.
ICE cotton futures settled higher for the second consecutive session on Monday, supported by concerns over potential crop damage in the US and a sharp rise in crude oil prices. However, gains remained limited as higher US cotton production and ending stocks estimates, a stronger dollar and subdued trading volumes weighed on market sentiment. Traders remained cautious ahead of the delayed US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report, which was expected to provide further clarity on weather-related damage.The most active December 2026 cotton contract settled at 80.60 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 6 points or 0.07 per cent from Friday's close of 80.54 cents. The contract recorded a cumulative gain of 66 points over two sessions. The December contract had touched its highest level since September 14 during Friday's session but failed to regain that level on Monday, suggesting continued resistance at higher prices. Other contracts closed 18–33 points higher. However, overall gains remained modest, with most contracts advancing by less than one cent over the two sessions.The cotton market continued to recover from recent lows amid concerns over heavy rainfall in US cotton-growing regions. Hurricane Isaias had weakened, but uncertainty persisted over the extent of crop damage. The USDA's weekly crop progress report was delayed by a day due to the Columbus Day holiday.Market sentiment was also influenced by the USDA's latest supply and demand estimates released on Friday. The agency raised its US cotton production forecast for the 2026-27 season by 2 per cent to 13.44 million bales and increased its ending stocks projection by 6 per cent to 3.8 million bales. The upward revisions suggested greater domestic supply availability and restricted further gains in cotton futures.Meanwhile, the US dollar remained near an 18-month high, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating attacks in the Middle East. A stronger dollar made US cotton more expensive for overseas buyers, potentially affecting export competitiveness and limiting buying interest.Crude oil prices strengthened sharply amid concerns over supply disruptions following missile and drone attacks by Houthi forces targeting Saudi Arabia. Oil prices rose by $1.89 to $93.74 per barrel, marking their third consecutive session of gains. Crude had increased by a cumulative $5.46 over the three sessions.According to market analysts, cotton prices had established a temporary bottom over the previous five to six trading sessions. A further limited downside trend is expected. Prices may remain around 80 cents per pound, which is a potentially reasonable level for both buyers and sellers.Trading activity remained relatively subdued. Total volume declined to 45,477 contracts from 65,390 contracts on Friday and was below the previous week's daily average of 51,382 contracts. Open interest stood at 384,955 contracts as of Friday, remaining close to the record high of 389,494 contracts registered on September 29.The daily trading limit for cotton futures was increased from 300 points to 400 points effective October 12, potentially allowing wider price movements in response to significant market developments.This morning (Indian Standard Time), December 2026 cotton traded at 80.26 cents per pound (down 0.34 cent). Cash cotton traded at 77.35 cents (up 0.06 cent), while the March 2027 contract traded at 83.50 cents (down 0.31 cent). The May 2027 contract traded at 85.19 cents (down 0.29 cent), the July 2027 contract at 85.64 cents (down 0.29 cent), and the October 2027 contract at 80.00 cents (up 0.19 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.
HTBt Cotton Spreads Across India
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026,, Yash Chouhan, (Source: www.smartinfoindia.com)
Why is unapproved HTBt cotton spreading in India?
Cultivation of unapproved herbicide-tolerant Bt (HTBt) cotton is increasing rapidly in India. According to a study by South Asia Biotechnology Center (SABC), it is estimated to be cultivated in 24-30% cotton area of the country, i.e. about 65-72 lakh acres in the Kharif season 2025-26. The main reasons for this are the increasing cost of weed control, shortage of labor and decreasing effectiveness of existing Bt cotton against pests.
What is the difference between Bt cotton and HTBt cotton?
Bt cotton was approved for commercial cultivation in India in 2002. It contains proteins obtained from bacteria called Bacillus thuringiensis, which protect the crop from certain pests like bollworms. Its use helped in increasing cotton production in the initial years and reducing the use of pesticides. HTBt cotton has the additional trait of insect resistance as well as herbicide tolerance. With this, farmers can use herbicides like glyphosate without harming the crop. However, HTBt cotton has not been approved for commercial cultivation in India.
Why are farmers adopting it?
According to the SABC study, hand weeding can cost up to ₹12,000-15,000 per acre, while glyphosate-based weed control has an estimated cost of ₹750-850. However, these figures may change according to the region and farming conditions.
On the other hand, the development of resistance in pink bollworm against the Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab proteins used in the existing Bollgard-II Bt cotton is reducing its effectiveness. This has increased the demand for alternative technologies among farmers.
Reason for decline in cotton production
India's cotton production peaked at about 39.8 million bales in 2013-14, while it declined to 29.1 million bales in 2025-26, preliminary government data showed. The main reasons for this include increasing resistance to pink bollworm, adverse weather conditions, crop diseases and reduction in cotton area.
What are the concerns?
The spread of unapproved HTBt seeds through the informal market raises questions about regulatory oversight and seed quality. There is also the risk of farmers not knowing the true genetic makeup of seeds and having limited options in case of crop failure.
Thus, the increasing adoption of HTBt cotton highlights farmers' need for affordable weed control technology and the limitations of accepted agricultural techniques. The challenge is to provide effective and affordable options to farmers, while ensuring seed quality, environmental impact and bio-security. Research is going on to remove the resistance. In July 2026, the Sugarcane Breeding Institute of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research announced a partnership with Rasi Seeds to develop a cotton hybrid with a new toxin to combat pink bollworm resistance. The institute said commercial seeds may be available around 2030, depending on further development.
Punjab Rains Damage Paddy, Cotton Crops
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026,, Yash Chouhan, (Source: www.smartinfoindia.com)
Punjab receives 477% more rainfall than normal in 24 hours, damaging paddy and cotton crops
Bathinda: Unseasonal rains during the harvest season in Punjab have damaged paddy and cotton crops. The rains flooded several grain markets, soaking paddy heaps, and disrupting the government procurement process. Farmer organizations have demanded an assessment of crop losses and compensation. According to Meteorological Department data, Punjab recorded 2.3 mm of rain in the last 24 hours until 8:30 am on Saturday, compared to the normal rainfall of 0.4 mm. This is 477% more than normal. Fazilka received the highest rainfall of 28 mm. Additionally, Faridkot recorded 9 mm, Muktsar 7.7 mm, and Bathinda 1.3 mm.Waterlogging in markets, affecting paddy procurement Following a three-hour storm in Fazilka on Sunday morning, the main grain market was flooded with nearly three feet of water. This caused the paddy stacks to be washed away. Goldy Sachdeva, president of the Fazilka Arhtiya Association, estimated the losses at around ₹15 crore. Arhtiyas and farmers alleged that the lack of adequate drainage and storage facilities contributed to the increased losses. In protest, the Arhtiya Association blocked the Fazilka-Ferozepur National Highway. Rain also caused disruptions in markets in Malout, Mansa, Barnala, and Bathinda. Balkar Singh, a farmer from Rattakheda village in Muktsar, said he had been waiting to sell his crop for the past eight days. The rain has increased moisture in the crop, which is likely to further delay the sale.
Heavy rain and storm alert in several districts
Punjab received 40% less rainfall than normal during the southwest monsoon. Despite this, the rain at harvest time has increased farmers' concerns. By October 10, only 12% of the paddy crop had been harvested.
The State Disaster Management Authority had issued a warning of thunderstorms, lightning, strong winds of up to 50-60 kilometers per hour, hailstorms, and moderate to heavy rain in several districts over the next 24 hours.
Demand for Damage Assessment and Compensation
According to Gurjeet Singh Brar, Director of the Punjab Agriculture Department, the department is gathering information on crop damage. He warned that waterlogging in fields and further rainfall could affect cotton quality.
Meanwhile, Harchand Singh Barsaat, Chairman of the Punjab State Agricultural Marketing Board, stated that adequate arrangements have been made for paddy procurement and that deficiencies in the arrangements will be addressed. He also clarified that there is no ban on storing crops in private yards.
Farmer organizations have demanded the government immediately conduct a survey, assess crop losses, and provide compensation to affected farmers.
Cotton Prices Surge on Supply Concerns
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026,, Yash Chouhan, (Source: www.smartinfoindia.com)
Cotton prices surge due to fears of low production and strong demand; Shankar-6 rate hits ₹68,000 per candy
The domestic cotton market has witnessed a surge driven by slow arrivals of the new crop, concerns over reduced production due to scanty rainfall, and robust demand from spinning mills. According to trade sources, cotton prices rose by approximately ₹3,000 to ₹4,000 per candy last week. In Gujarat, the price of Shankar-6 cotton reached around ₹68,000 per candy. The market has also found support as farmers are holding back sales in anticipation of better prices.
Domestic market sentiment has strengthened following a rally in December and March cotton futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the international market. Meanwhile, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has raised the auction prices for its cotton stock by ₹500 per candy (356 kg) for the 2025-26 season.
*New crop arrivals and price situation
Approximately 5 lakh bales of the new cotton crop arrived across the country during the first nine days of the 2026-27 season. Reports indicate that daily arrivals totaled around 78,000 bales. This included 17,000 bales from North India, 16,000 from Madhya Pradesh, 15,000 from Gujarat, 9,000 from Karnataka, 8,000 from Andhra Pradesh, 7,000 from Maharashtra, and 6,000 from Telangana.
According to Atul S. Ganatra, CMD of Radhalakshmi Group, farmers are in no rush to sell, hoping for better prices. In Gujarat, the price of Shankar-6 cotton rose from ₹64,000 on September 30 to ₹68,000 per candy. Market supported by mill demand
According to Anand Popat of CotYarn Trade Link, prices are being supported by limited supplies and improved demand from spinning mills. However, market volatility may persist due to rising arrivals of the new crop and fluctuations in international prices.
According to Ramanuj Das Boob, a cotton sourcing agent in Raichur, demand in the local market remains strong. Cotton prices have reached ₹9,700 per quintal in Raichur and approximately ₹9,200 per quintal in Telangana.
Wet Cotton Raises CCI Procurement Concerns
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026,, Yash Chouhan, (Source: www.smartinfoindia.com)
Excess Moisture in Cotton Adds to Farmers' Woes: Fear of Rejection by CCI and Low Market Prices
Anjad, Barwani (Madhya Pradesh). Cotton-growing farmers are facing two major challenges regarding the sale of their produce. On one hand, there is an apprehension that the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) might reject the produce during procurement at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) due to high moisture content; on the other, there are complaints about receiving low prices from private traders.
On Monday, cotton prices at the Anjad Agricultural Produce Market ranged from ₹7,900 to ₹9,510 per quintal. The Rashtriya Kisan Mazdoor Mahasangh has demanded a price of at least ₹11,000 per quintal for farmers. Office-bearers, led by the organization's District President Anil Iske, submitted a memorandum to the market secretary.
The organization demanded open bidding among all eligible traders, timely payment to farmers, and the conduct of cotton auctions in the presence of officials at the village Bhagsur.
Apprehension of Government Procurement Being Affected by Moisture
According to reports, moisture content is a crucial factor in CCI procurement. A price range of ₹8,567 to ₹8,569 per quintal is indicated for cotton with approximately 8% moisture. However, if the moisture content reaches 12%, the price could drop to around ₹8,000 per quintal. Government procurement could be adversely affected if moisture levels exceed the prescribed limits.
Procurement at Minimum Support Price Scheduled to Begin on October 15*
Reports indicate that cotton procurement at the Minimum Support Price under the CCI's Indore branch is scheduled to commence on October 15. Information has been provided that slot booking for this process will begin at 9:00 AM on October 13. Farmers will be able to book slots via the market, Common Service Centers, or the relevant mobile app.
According to District President Anil Iske, many farmers lack adequate space for drying and safely storing their cotton. Due to the risk of fire and pressing financial needs, farmers are unable to hold back their produce. The organization alleges that some traders quote prices ranging from ₹7,000 to ₹8,000 per quintal, citing moisture content.
CCI Cotton Sales Cross 97.16 Lakh Bales
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026,, Yash Chouhan, (Source: www.smartinfoindia.com)
State-wise CCI Cotton Sales Details – 2025-26 Season
The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased its cotton candy prices by upto ₹300 per candy during this week . CCI has sold approximately 97,16,500 cotton bales for the 2025-26 season. Sales are highly concentrated in a few major cotton-producing states, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat emerging as the leading contributors.
India must leverage FTAs, textiles to boost exports & jobs: Goyal
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026, (Source: www.fibre2fashion.com)
Insights: India's Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal said India must combine access to advanced global technologies with job creation and business growth.Highlighting FTAs and strengths in textiles, footwear, agriculture and food processing, he stressed exports, quality standards and global partnerships to support India's ambition of becoming a developed nation by 2047.
India must combine access to the world’s best technologies with a focus on sectors that can generate jobs and business opportunities, India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said, highlighting the role of free trade agreements (FTAs) and India’s strengths in textiles, footwear, agriculture and food processing.Addressing the ‘Dilli Dialogue: Policies for a Future-Ready India’ in New Delhi, Goyal stressed the need to expand opportunities for businesses, startups and young people.“We want to be a part of the global marketplace. Providing opportunities for people, providing opportunities for jobs, for our startups, for our youth to come up with newer ideas,” he said. India’s growing engagement with global markets through free trade agreements (FTAs) is creating opportunities for domestic businesses and young people. Partnerships with developed economies could benefit both sides, with India leveraging its strengths in textiles, footwear, agriculture and food processing while gaining access to advanced technologies and high-quality electronic equipment, Goyal said, according to a Ministry of Commerce and Industry press release. Goyal added that India was not closing its doors to the world but “opening them wider”. He also referred to the country’s trillion-dollar export ambition, expressing confidence in its ability to achieve the target and linking it to the broader vision of ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’.India’s ambition to become a developed nation by 2047 is backed by a roadmap identifying key sectors that can drive economic growth, he said. Goyal also highlighted demand for goods and services among India’s 1.4 billion people, adding that rising imports point to opportunities for domestic industry and international investors.On competitiveness, Goyal called for co-ordinated efforts by policymakers, industry stakeholders and institutions, including the Bureau of Indian Standards and the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India, to strengthen quality standards.He said adopting and consistently implementing world-class quality standards would help Indian businesses compete globally, concluding that the world offers significant opportunities for India to capture.
Global cotton output raised to 117.95 mn bales for 2026-27: WASDE
Tuesday, 13th Oct 2026, (Source: www.fibre2fashion.com)
Insights: USDA's October WASDE raised 2026-27 world cotton output by 630,000 bales to 117.95 million, as larger Brazil and US crops more than offset lower Argentina production.Global supplies, consumption, exports and ending stocks were all revised up, with stocks at 70.68 million bales and the stocks-to-use ratio at 57.4 per cent; Brazil output rose to 19 million bales and India imports to 3.30 million.
World cotton production for 2026-27 has been raised by 630,000 bales to 117.95 million bales of 480 pounds or around 218 kg each in the October estimate, from 117.32 million bales projected in September. The increase reflects larger crops in Brazil and the US, which more than offset lower production in Argentina, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).Global cotton supplies were raised to 193.65 million bales from 192.62 million last month, as beginning stocks increased to 75.70 million bales from 75.31 million. Global consumption was revised upwards to 123.08 million bales from 122.92 million, reflecting higher demand projections for Vietnam, Malaysia, Guatemala and Nicaragua.International cotton trade was also revised upwards, with global exports increasing to 44.71 million bales from 44.22 million in September, largely due to higher shipments from Brazil. Global ending stocks were raised by 820,000 bales to 70.68 million bales from 69.86 million, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to approximately 57.4 per cent from 56.8 per cent.
Among major producers, Brazil's cotton production forecast was raised by 500,000 bales to 19 million bales, while exports increased by an equal amount to 16 million bales. India's production and consumption remained unchanged at 24 million and 26.50 million bales, respectively. However, India's imports were raised to 3.30 million bales from 3 million, while ending stocks increased to 10.43 million bales from 10.32 million.China's outlook remained unchanged, with production at 33.50 million bales, imports at 7 million bales and consumption at 42 million bales. Vietnam's imports and consumption were each raised by 100,000 bales to 8.30 million bales. Bangladesh's imports remained at 7.40 million bales, while Turkiye's and Pakistan's import forecasts were maintained at 5 million and 5.10 million bales, respectively.
The US cotton outlook also reflected higher supplies. The USDA raised its 2026-27 production forecast by 2 per cent to 13.44 million bales from 13.20 million, as the national average yield increased to 790 pounds per harvested acre from 776 pounds. Larger crops across the Delta states drove the upward revision. Domestic consumption and exports remained unchanged at 1.50 million and 12.30 million bales, respectively.Consequently, US ending stocks were raised by 6 per cent to 3.80 million bales from 3.60 million, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 27.5 per cent from 26.1 per cent. The projected season-average farm price for upland cotton was lowered by 1 cent to 77 cents per pound.For 2025-26, the US cotton balance sheet remained unchanged, although the season-average farm price was revised marginally upwards to 62.2 cents per pound. Global production for the season was estimated at 122.05 million bales, consumption at 120.79 million bales and ending stocks at 75.70 million bales.
