Sep-2026
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2026/27 show lower production, consumption, and beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected imports and exports are unchanged. Production is reduced by 3 percent to 13.2 million bales as the national average yield is also lowered by 3 percent to 776 pounds per harvested acre. Regionally, yields and production are lower in the Delta and Southwest while slightly higher in the Southeast and West. Projected mill use is reduced to 1.50 million bales as the U.S. textile base continues to contract. With smaller supplies due to reductions in beginning stocks and production, the forecast for ending stocks is reduced by 10 percent to 3.60 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26.1 percent, down from 28.8 percent last month. The projected season average farm price for upland cotton is 78 cents/lb., up from 75 cents/lb. last month.
For 2025/26, the U.S. export estimate is raised to 12.30 million bales, reflecting year-end trade data from Census and other sources. Meanwhile, the ending stocks estimate is lowered to 4.15 million bales due to stronger exports. The estimated season average farm price is raised slightly to 62.0 cents/lb.
Projected world production for 2026/27 is lowered while trade and beginning and ending stocks are all increased. Global cotton consumption stays the same. Production is lowered by over 300,000 bales to 117.3 million as reductions for the United States, Turkey and Pakistan more than offset increases for Brazil, the African Franc Zone and Kazakhstan. For consumption, an increase in Indonesia is balanced by a decrease in the United States, and other minor changes offset each other. Projected trade is up by over 400,000 bales as higher exports from Brazil and the African Franc Zone are matched by greater imports in Turkey, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Global ending stocks rise by about 170,000 bales as higher beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production.
For 2025/26, global imports, consumption, and ending stocks are raised, primarily reflecting updated trade data.
