June-2023
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections compared to last month show lower beginning stocks, but higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Projected abandonmentin the Southwest has been reduced due to recent favorable rainfall, resulting in a production increase of 1.0 million bales to 16.5 million. Overall U.S. abandonment is now projected at 16 percent, which would be less than half its 2022/23 level, and close to the long run average. Exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 14.0 million, as both projected U.S. supplies and world trade are higher this month. The 2023/24 season average upland farm price is down 1 cent from the May forecast, at 77 cents per pound, and ending stocks are 200,000 bales higher, at 3.5 million. Revisions to the 2022/23 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 100,000-bale reduction in domestic mill use based on lagging spinning activity to date, and a 400,000-bale increase in exports based on strong sales and shipment activity to date. Ending stocks for 2022/23 are now projected 300,000 bales lower than in May.
In the global 2023/24 cotton balance sheet, higher beginning stocks and production more than offset an increase in consumption, and ending stocks are projected 515,000 bales higher than in May, at 92.8 million. The forecast for world cotton production is 1.0 million bales higher this month as larger crops in the United States and Pakistan offset a 500,000- bale reduction for China. Consumption is 765,000 bales higher with increases in Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Turkey. World trade is also projected higher, up 900,000 bales, led by increased U.S. exports and China imports. Beginning stocks are 254,000 bales higher as the consumption prospects for 2022/23 continue to decline, down 538,000 bales from the May forecast. The 2022/23 forecast for world production is virtually unchanged as a 740,000-bale decline for West Africa’s Franc Zone is largely offset by increases for the crops in India and Brazil.
