Source: https://manbo.com

November 22, 2022

It is whispered that negotiations are going well to try to lay the foundations of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia but that the road to be travelled before finding this agreement is still long. The carpet of Russian bombs is redoubling its violence to change the Ukrainian position, which does not intend to give up either the Donbass or the Crimea, while the war crimes denounced tirelessly on the Ukrainian side make the possibility of a trial before the International Criminal Court weigh on the Russian leaders. 

The final results of the American Midterms elections appear to be a Democratic victory as the success of the Republicans in the House of Representatives is limited. This status quo should allow President Biden to continue his policies for the last two years of his term. 

Although the FED announced that it was slowing down the pace of rate hikes, the dollar strengthened following the ECB's announcement that it would continue its policy of adjusting greenback rates. A new version of "chase me and I'll catch you". 

But how much room for maneuvers is there when the world is sinking into recession? Certainly not much. The world is in reaction and not in action. The failure of COP 27 is symptomatic of this. Despite the urgency of the situation, no progress was made on global warming, but the financing problems of developing countries were taken into account, which was described as historic. 

As far as cotton is concerned, the end of the road seems near, as demand has contracted to low levels. 

The Rabobank report on commodities forecasts a general contraction in demand in 2023, which would allow prices to fall massively. 

In the physical market all spinners are reducing their consumption and looking to sell off their production. In the current context, there is little chance that Black Friday or the end-of-year celebrations will have a positive impact. This weekend, the Mediterranean Cotton Road will be held in Thessaloniki and will allow us to take the pulse of the major European markets, namely Greece and Turkey. 

Furthermore, despite all the announcements made by the shipping companies concerning a reduction in freight rates and a return to normal service, nothing has yet been done. This very gloomy climate on the cotton front is likely to continue. (Source: https://manbo.com)