CAI PEGS DOWN ITS CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE COTTON SEASON 2019-20 TO 330 LAKH BALES
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its April estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1st October 2019. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 to 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each as against 354.50 lakh bales estimated by it earlier. The cotton crop finalised by the CAI for the last year i.e. for the crop year 2018-19 was 312.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to April 2020 is 329.59 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 285.09 lakh bales upto 30th April 2020, imports of 12.50 lakh bales upto 30th April 2020 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to April 2020 at 160.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th April 2020 is 32.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of April 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 137.09 lakh bales including 25.00 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 112.09 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).
The Crop Committee of the Association has estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 377.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (as against 411.50 lakh bales estimated in the previous month). Total cotton supply consists of the Opening Stock of 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2019, crop for the season estimated at 330.00 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 15.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 17.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate of 32.00 lakh bales. The estimate of the cotton imports into India is now estimated lower by 10 lakh bales (i.e. 15 lakh bales now estimated to be imported into India during the current crop year as against 25 lakh bales estimated earlier) as due to about the 10% depreciation in value of Indian Rupee, imported cotton has become costly as also as Indian cotton is now very cheap and easily available in quantity.
Domestic consumption now estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 280.00 lakh bales (as against 331 lakh bales estimated by the CAI based on the estimate of Cotton Advisory Board made in their meeting held on 28th November 2019. There is a reduction of 51 lakh bales in the consumption estimate now made compared to that estimated earlier due to the lower consumption of cotton on account of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic in the country. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 47 lakh bales as against 42 lakh bales estimated earlier. This export estimate is higher by 5 lakh bales than estimated in the previous year looking to the favourable conditions now existing for export of cotton from India. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 50 lakh bales as against 38.50 lakh bales estimated earlier.
Highlights of deliberations of the CAI Crop Committee on production, consumption, exports, imports, etc. are summarised below.
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 23RD MAY 2020
Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) has arrived at its April estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drawn estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of deliberations of the Crop Committee of the CAI: -
The CAI has pegged down the consumption of cotton during the current crop year by 51 lakh bales (i.e. 280 lakh bales as against its previous estimate of 331 lakh bales. The break-up of the month-wise reduction now estimated in the consumption figures is as follows: -
Estimated Reduction in Cotton Consumption
(lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each)
This reduction in consumption is estimated due to the disruptions caused on account of lockdown and the shortage of labour.
The Committee members are expecting and with a positive note, labourers will resume their work from the month of June onwards. Further, it is expected that the spinning mills in India will operate with more than 90% of their respective capacities during the months of July, August and September.
Upto 30th April, consumption is estimated at 160 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each.
The members of the CAI Crop Committee will monitor consumption figures very closely and if any increase or decrease is required to be made in the estimate of cotton consumption, the same will be made in the crop reports for the months of July/August.
The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the season 2019-20 by 24.50 lakh bales to 330.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each from its previous estimate of 354.50 lakh bales. The state-wise reduction in crop estimate figures for the Season compared to earlier estimate are given below: -
|States||Reduction (In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each)|
This reduction in the production estimate is on account of the following: -
|(i)||Due to the availability of water, many farmers have gone for rabi crops and uprooted their cotton plants without waiting for the last picking.|
|(ii)||Due to the lockdown of more than two months, ginning factories were completely shut from 23rd March to 30th April and thereafter, they were operating with only 20% of their respective capacities. This has resulted in huge production loss.|
|(iii)||Even now, there is labour shortage in the ginning factories due to the lockdown and rainy season is expected to arrive from 10th or 15th June. Due to this, lots of kapas will be carried forward in the hands of farmers.|
|(iv)||Gujarat will be the worst-affected state, where 15-20 lakh bales of cotton arrive from other states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and northern states. However, due to the direct procurement by the CCI at the MSP rates in all the states, this arrival of cotton to Gujarat from other states will be reduced. Further, due to the lockdown and the shortage of labour, fewer factories will operate resulting in more kapas to be carried forward to the next season.|
|(v)||If the Cotton Corporation of India and the Maharashtra Cotton Growers’ Marketing Federation will stop purchasing cotton early, the production will go down further and the farmers will carry kapas to the next year as the rates offered by the private buyers are very low compared to that of the government agencies.|
|(vi)___||The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals for the months of May, June, July and August and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the reports for the months of July/August.|
There is a reduction of 10 lakh bales in the projection of imports of cotton into India during the 2019-20 crop year and it has now been pegged down to 15 lakh bales as against 25 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously. The import figure is lower by 17.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.
This reduction in the import figures is estimated now as due to the depreciation in the value of Indian Rupee by 8-10%, imported cotton has become very costly and also because our Indian cotton is very cheap and easily available in quantity.
Upto 30th April, 12 lakh plus cotton bales have arrived on Indian Ports.
There is an increase of 5 lakh bales in the projection of cotton exports for the season looking to the favourable conditions for exports as Indian Rupee has depreciated by 8-10% which lending a big support. Also, the Indian cotton is the cheapest in the world at this time.
On 22nd May 2020, COTLOOK A index was 40,073. Compared to this, the prices of Indian cotton are lower. Therefore, demand for Indian cotton in the international markets at the prevailing price levels is expected to increase.
The exports for the Season have now been estimated at 47 lakh bales compared to 42 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously. The export figure estimated now is 5 lakh bales higher compared to that estimated for the previous year.
We estimate that upto 30th April, 32.50 lakh bales have been shipped and shipment of further 4/5 lakh bales is expected to take place in the month of May. Also, some more bales are contracted for June month shipments.
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 to April 2020 are estimated at 285.09 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 302.90 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
- STOCK AS ON 30TH APRIL
Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 30th April 2020 is estimated at 25 lakh bales (equivalent to 26.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Mills have on an average about 33 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 112.09 lakh bales as on 30th April 2020 which is equal to about 119.10 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 30th April 2020 is estimated at 137.09 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 145.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
- CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER
Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 50.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to about 53.00 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
|___8.___||All 31 members of the Crop Committee of the CAI from all over the country will meet sometimes in the month July/August to arrive at the final figures for the current crop year 2019-20.|
Mumbai ( Atul S. Ganatra )
Date: 25th May 2020 President
|COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA|
|INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20|
|Estimated as on 30th April 2020|
|State||Arrivals As on 30th April 2020|
|Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||(in’000 Tons)||Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||(in’000 Tons)||(in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each)||(in’000 Tons)|
|Total North Zone||52.40||6.60||59.00||1003.00||52.90||6.60||59.50||1011.50||53.90||916.30|
|Total Central Zone||167.85||9.65||177.50||3017.50||170.98||9.65||180.63||3070.71||143.40||2437.80|
|Total South Zone||78.70||9.80||88.50||1504.50||57.75||9.80||67.55||1148.35||83.23||1414.91|
|COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA|
|INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20|
|Estimated as on 30th April 2020|
|(in lakh b/s)||(in’000 Tons)||(in lakh b/s)||(in’000 Tons)|
|Opening Stock||* 32.00||544.00||33.00||561.00|
|Consumption by SSI Units||21.00||357.00||25.00||425.00|
|Non- Mill Consumption||16.00||272.00||12.00||204.00|
|Total Domestic Demand||280.00||4760.00||311.50||5295.50|
|*||One time adjustment made in the carry-over stock by the CAI Crop Committee in the meeting held in the month of January 2020.|
|COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA|
|Balance Sheet of 7 months i.e. from 1.10.2019 to 30.04.2020|
|for the season 2019-20|
|Details||(in lakh b/s of 170 kg)||(in '000 Tons)|
|Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019||32.00||544.00|
|Arrivals upto 30.04.2020||285.09||4846.53|
|Imports upto 30.04.2020||12.50||212.50|
|Export Shipment upto 30.04.2020||32.50||552.50|
|Stock with Mills||25.00||425.00|
|Stock with CCI, MNCs & Ginners||112.09||1905.53|
|AS PER COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA|
|STOCK ON 30.04.2020|
|(Figures in lakh bales of 170 kg.)|
|STATE||GINNERS||MNC||CCI NEW||CCI OLD||MCX||MAH. FEDN.||TOTAL|
|Note:||These are pressing bales figures stock available as on 30.04.2020 at 170 kg per bale (i.e. 119.10 lakh bales of 160 kgs.). The loose and raw cotton lying in ginning factories of ginners & CCI is not considered in this stock.|