CAI INCREASES ITS CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE COTTON SEASON 2019-20 TO 335.50 LAKH BALES
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its June estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1st October 2019. The CAI has increased its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 to 335.50 bales of 170 Kgs. each compared to its previous estimate of 330 lakh bales made during the last month. The cotton crop finalised by the CAI for the last year i.e. for the crop year 2018-19 was 312.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year are enclosed.
The Crop Committee of the Association has estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 382.50 lakh bales of 170 Kgs. each which consists of the Opening Stock of 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2019, crop for the season estimated at 335.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 15.00 lakh bales. The imports are estimated to be lower by 17.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate of 32.00 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 has been estimated at 280.00 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated in the last month. The consumption for the crop year 2019-20 was earlier estimated by the CAI at 331.00 lakh bales but the same was later reduced by 51.00 lakh bales due to the lower consumption of cotton on account of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic in the country. The CAI has retained its export estimate for the season at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 47 lakh bales against 42.00 lakh bales estimated earlier. The increase of 5.00 lakh bales in the export estimate than estimated in the previous year was made looking to the favourable conditions existing for exports of cotton from India. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 55.50 lakh bales.
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 27TH JULY 2020
Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) has arrived at its June estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drawn estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of deliberations of the Crop Committee of the CAI: -
The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated in the last month i.e. 280.00 lakh bales. The consumption for the Season was previously estimated at 331.00 bales but the same was later reduced by 51 lakh bales to 280 lakh bales due to the disruptions caused on account of lockdown and the shortage of labour.
The members of the CAI Crop Committee will monitor consumption figures very closely and if any increase or decrease is required to be made in the estimate of cotton consumption, the same will be made in the crop reports for the months of July and August.
The CAI has increased its cotton production estimate for the season 2019-20 by 5.50 lakh bales to 335.50 lakh bales as against its production estimate of 330 lakh bales made during the last month. The production estimate for the North zone has been increased by 1 lakh bales (i.e. 50,000 bales each for the States of Haryana and Lower Rajasthan) while the production estimate for the Central zone has been increased by 4 lakh bales (i.e. 3.50 lakh bales for the State of Maharashtra and 50,000 for the State of Madhya Pradesh). The production estimate for the South zone has also been increased by 50,000 bales (i.e. 25,000 bales each for Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka compared to the crop estimates for these states made during the last month.
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals of the months of July and August and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the crop reports for the months of July and August.
The estimate of the cotton imports into India has been maintained by the CAI at the same level as estimated in the previous month i.e. at 15.00 lakh bales. This import estimate is lower by 17.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.
The CAI has retained its export estimate at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month i.e. at 47.00 lakh bales against the previous year’s exports estimate of 42.00 lakh bales.
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 to June 2020 are estimated at 327.02 lakh bales of 170 K.gs. each which are equivalent to 347.46 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
6) CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER
Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 55.50 lakh bales of 170 K.gs. each which is equivalent to about 59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
The meeting of the CAI Crop Committee has taken place on WhatsApp and more than 20 Members have participated.
7) CAI has convened a meeting of all 30 members of the Crop Committee in the 3rd week of August to finalise the figures of Production, Consumption, Import, Export and Carry-over Stock. Due to this, monthly Balance Sheet and Stock figures are not provided with this estimate.
|Mumbai||Atul S. Ganatra|
|Date: 27th July 2020||President|
|COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA|
|INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20|
|Estimated as on 30th June 2020|