CAI FURTHER LOWERS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 202223 SEASON BY 9.25 LAKH BALES TO 330.50 LAKH BALES

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its December estimate of the cotton crop for the season 202223 beginning from 1^{st} October 2022. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 202223 season to 330.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 351.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The statewise breakup of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 to December 2022 is estimated at 116.27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 123.54 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 80.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 85.14 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 4.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 4.52 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2022 to December 2022 at 65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31^{st} December 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 2.00 lakh bales (equivalent to 2.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of December 2022 is estimated at 49.27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 52.35 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 35 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 37.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 14.27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including cotton sold but not delivered).
The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of the cotton season 202223 i.e. upto 30^{th} September 2023 is 374.39 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 397.79 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1^{st} October 2022, crop for the season estimated at 330.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 351.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at the same level i.e. at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The import estimated by the CAI for the corresponding year 202122 was at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 300 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level estimated earlier. The exports for the season have been estimated at 30.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated previously. The exports estimate for the previous
cotton season 202122 was 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carryover stock which was earlier estimated at 53.64 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 56.99 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) is now estimated at 44.39 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 13^{TH} JANUARY 2023
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on Friday, the 13^{th} January 2023, which was attended by 25 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country. The Committee arrived at its December estimate of the cotton crop for 202223 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting: 
 CONSUMPTION
The CAI has retained its cotton consumption estimate at 300.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 337.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31^{st} December 2022, the consumption is estimated at 65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
 PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for 202223 season by 9.25 lakh bales to 330.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 351.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). CAI has made following changes in the statewise production estimates of the season 202223 compared to its previous crop estimate: 
State 
Increase (+) Decrease () 
Punjab 
 0.75 
Haryana 
 1.50 
Lower Rajasthan 
 0.50 
Gujarat 
+ 0.50 
Maharashtra 
 2.00 
Telangana 
 1.00 
Andhra Pradesh 
 2.00 
Karnataka 
 2.00 
TOTAL 
 9.25 
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI report.
 IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton imports into India is maintained at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 2 lakh bales than the import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 202122.
Upto 31^{st} December 2022, about 4.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 4.52 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
 EXPORTS
The Committee has maintained its cotton exports estimate at 30 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and are less by 13 lakh bales than the exports estimate of 43.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the crop year 202122.
Upto 31^{st} December 2022, about 2 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 2.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
 ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2022 to December 2022 are estimated at 80.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 85.14 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
 CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30^{TH} SEPTEMBER 2023
Closing stock as on 30^{th} September 2023 is estimated by the Committee at 44.39 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Mumbai 
Atul S. Ganatra 
Date: 14^{th} January 2023 
President 

COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA  
INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 202122 AND 202223  
Estimated as on 31st December 2022  
Details  202223  202122  
(in lakh b/s)  (in’000 Tons)  (in lakh b/s)  (in’000 Tons)  
Supply  
Opening Stock  31.89  542.13  71.84  1221.28 
Crop  330.50  5618.50  307.05  5219.85 
Imports  12.00  204.00  14.00  238.00 
Total Supply  374.39  6364.63  392.89  6679.13 
Demand  
Mill Consumption  280.00  4760.00  293.00  4981.00 
Consumption by SSI Units  15.00  255.00  19.00  323.00 
Non Mill Consumption  5.00  85.00  6.00  102.00 
Total Domestic Demand  300.00  5100.00  318.00  5406.00 
Available Surplus  74.39  1264.63  74.89  1273.13 
Exports  30.00  510.00  43.00  731.00 
Closing Stock  44.39  754.63  31.89  542.13 
COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA  
Balance Sheet of 3 months i.e. from 1.10.2022 to 31.12.2022  
for the season 202223 
