Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
September 30, 2022
Cotton was sharply lower Thursday amid USDA's poor export sales and a weak Dow Jones. Initially, Thursday's export data for last week showed a mere 30,000 bales sold for last week, which was below last week's report (32,000). As far as sales, China was not in the buying mix. The Dow Jones gave back nearly all of its 7.00-cent gain from Wednesday, as new fears of recession re-emerged among traders.
The technical trend for cotton remains steeply bearish, which is not unusual for this time of year, with harvest unfolding. However, trading has been particularly vicious since the July monthly now, with prices zooming from 85.00 cents to 119 cents, and then nearly back again. To that end, traders of all stripes have been dramatically whipsawed.
Tropical Ian will soon be a threat to the mid-Atlantic cotton states. The downgraded storm is expected to soon exit out into the Atlantic Ocean via Jacksonville, Florida, and then reform into a Category 1 hurricane. Then, it is expected to pound the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Recently, USDA has reported both of those states' cotton crops stand about two-thirds open. South Carolina is the No. 10 producer in the nation.
Friday afternoon, the CFTC will publish its latest information on the managed-money funds, plus its Commitment of Traders report. Last week's data showed the managed-money funds were net long some 42,000 contracts. With the approach of the end of the quarter, those speculators may pare their net long positions even more. At one time, earlier in the season, they stood some 90,000-net long contracts.
For Thursday, December closed at 85.16 cents, down 3.33 cents, March 2023 finished at 82.73 cents, down 3.12 cents and July 2023 settled at 79.40 cents, 2.59 cents lower; estimated volume was 36,667 contracts. (Source: qualitygin.com)